COVID-19: identifying the main outcome predictors. A retrospective cohort study in Northern Italy.

OBJECTIVE: The need for efficient drugs and early treatment of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection developing COVID-19 symptoms is of primary importance in daily clinical practice and it is certainly among the most difficult medical challenges in the current century. Recognizing those patients who will need stronger clinical efforts could effectively help doctors anticipate the eventual need for intensification of care (IoC) and choose the best treatment in order to avoid worse outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We enrolled 501 patients, consecutively admitted to our two COVID hospitals, and collected their clinical, anamnestic and laboratory data on admission. The aim of this retrospective study was to identify those data that are strictly associated with COVID-19 outcomes (IoC and in-hospital death) and that could somehow be intended as predictors of these outcomes. This allowed us to provide a "sketch" of the patient who undergoes, more often than others, an intensification of care and/or in-hospital death. RESULTS: Males were found to have a double risk of needing an IoC (OR=2.11) and a significant role was played by both the PaO2/FiO2 ratio on admission (OR=0.99) and serum LDH (OR=1.01). The main predictors of in-hospital death were age (OR=1.08) and the PaO2/FiO2 ratio on admission (OR=0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Male patients with high serum LDH on admission are those who undergo more often an intensification of care among COVID-19 inpatients. Both age and respiratory performances on admission modify the prognosis within the hospitalization period.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and H1N1 vaccination: does a relationship between the two factors really exist? A retrospective analysis of a territorial cohort in Ferrara, Italy.

OBJECTIVE: SARS-CoV-2 has been compared with other strains of coronaviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and with the flu viruses: all of them manifest themselves with respiratory symptoms and, although their genetic patterns are similar, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection has quickly reached global dimensions, demonstrating that SARS-CoV-2 is a virus with greater spreading capacity, albeit less lethal. Compared with influenza viruses, coronaviruses have a longer incubation period and the patients with coronaviruses' syndromes develop more severe diseases requiring frequent hospitalizations and intensive care admissions. The aim was to explore the relationships between seasonal influenza vaccination and coronavirus infection and to understand whether this hypothetic role by the flu vaccines modifies SARS-CoV-2 infection's outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this retrospective, multicenter study, we enrolled 952 patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection; 448 were admitted to our two main hospitals in Ferrara territory, while the remaining 504 were isolated at home. We compared the group of patients who had been vaccinated for influenza in the previous 12 months to that of unvaccinated patients. RESULTS: Significant differences were found for both the need for hospitalization and 30-day mortality between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. We found age to be the only independent risk factor for a worse 30-day prognosis, while gender, influenza vaccinations and age itself were independent risk factors for undergoing hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: In our groups of patients, we found a relationship between seasonal influenza vaccinations and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Age seems to be the main risk factor for short-term mortality in COVID-19 inpatients, while the influenza vaccination is, together with gender and age itself, a determining factor in predicting the need for hospitalization.

SARS-CoV-2 and finding of vein thrombosis: can IMPROVE and IMPROVEDD scores predict COVID-19 outcomes?

OBJECTIVE: Diffuse thrombosis represents one of the most predominant causes of death by COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 infection seems to increase the risk of developing venous thromboembolic diseases (VTE). Aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between validated predictive scores for VTE such as IMPROVE and IMPROVEDD and: (1) Intensification of Care (IoC, admission to Pulmonology Department or Intensive Care Unit) (2) in-hospital mortality rate 3) 30-days mortality rate. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 51 adult patients with laboratory diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection and calculated IMPROVE and IMPROVEDD scores. All patients underwent venous color-Doppler ultrasound of the lower limbs to assess the presence of superficial vein thrombosis (SVT) and/or deep vein thrombosis (DVT). Patients with normal values of D-dimer did not receive heparin therapy (LMWH); patients with ≥ 4 ULN values of D-dimer or with a diagnosis of DVT were treated with therapeutic LMWH dosage, while the remaining patients were treated with prophylactic LMWH dosages. RESULTS: We found strong relations between IMPROVE score and the need for IoC and with the in-hospital mortality rate and between the IMPROVEDD score and the need for IoC. We defined that an IMPROVE score greater than 4 points was significantly associated to in-hospital mortality rate (p = 0.05), while an IMPROVEDD score greater than 3 points was associated with the need for IoC (p = 0.04). Multivariate logistic analysis showed how IMPROVE score was significantly associated to in-hospital and 30-days mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: IMPROVE score can be considered an independent predictor of in-hospital and 30-days mortality.